This study presents an analysis of different risk factors for future power prices and renewable energy market values in Norway, a region dominated by renewable power.
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This study presents an analysis of different risk factors for future power prices and renewable energy market values in Norway, a region dominated by renewable power.
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In recent years, the government has also increased its focus of building up wind power capacities offshore, for which it holds great potential. Already, hydropower and wind power account for over 98 percent of electricity production in Norway. Discover all statistics and data on Renewable energy in Norway now on statista.com!
Generation capacity The price effect of increasing the installed capacity in Norway is between −0.03 €/MWh and − 0.69 €/MWh per GW of additional capacity, depending on the technology. The highest price sensitivity is observed for increased capacity of highly flexible hydropower plants.
The range of technology costs is based on Energistyrelsen (2020), and implemented as a change from the base values in Balmorel. Fuel price uncertainty is based on Chen et al. (2021a), but fuel price of biomass is based on extrapolation of historical variations from Energimyndigheten (2020).
For instance, assumed wind power capacities in the Nordic countries in 2040 ranged from 25 GW to 82 GW (Chen et al., 2021a). Similarly, generation capacities in Norway varied between 39 and 68 GW in 2040. Nordic demand projections vary between 409 and 680 TWh in 2040, where 7%–9% will be from electrical vehicles.
We find the market value for regulated hydropower to be 52 ± 6 €/MWh, which is 13 €/MWh higher than the average Norwegian power price. This corresponds to a value factor of 1.34, 4 illustrating the high value of the flexibility provided by the regulated hydro power plants.
The market values of renewable power technologies differ substantially with hydropower at 53 ± 6 €/MWh, onshore wind at 32 ± 4 €/MWh, offshore wind at 33 ± 3 €/MWh, and solar PV as low as 20 ± 3 €/MWh.
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